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2012-08-14T07:42:38Z

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The "flash crash" phenomenon is apparently likely all over.

Previous week marked the anniversary of your very first flash crash -- Might 6, 2010. That was the day some superior frequency trading (HFT) algorithms went haywire, delivering a slew of large-cap shares like Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE) down 30% in the space of minutes.

This year, crude oil experienced its own flash crash on Thursday, May well 5, as the futures dropped $10 for each barrel in a single day. The move crushed a range of substantial commodity dealing funds, with losses ranging from $300 million to $500 million.

And prior to crude oil's big drop, there was the violent reversal in silver, kicked off by margin hikes and a rush to the exits. These convulsions appear to have spread all across the commodity complex.

On Wednesday of this week, it was time for yet a different flash crash du jour -- this time in gasoline futures. Via The Wall Street Journal:

At 12:06 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday, gasoline prices fell with the 25-cent daily limit set by commodities-exchange operator CME Group Inc. That triggered a five-minute trading halt for gasoline, crude oil and heating oil.

Dealing resumed with a 50-cent limit for gasoline. Prices stabilized, but gasoline ended down 25.69 cents. On a percentage basis, the decline was the steepest in a lot more than two years.

The catalyst? A U.S. Department of Energy report showing an unexpected buildup of gasoline stockpiles. With supply tightness less than expected, gas prices (at least in the futures) went into freefall.

Refiners were hit by the move, as the "crack spread" -- a measure of price difference between crude oil costs and refined product -- narrowed sharply. (For refiners, the wider the spread the better, as it increases profit margins on what they sell.)

Sitting opposite of refiners were airline stocks, the prices of which jumped sharply as the crack distribute came in. For airways, less supply tightness means lower fueling costs. (That can create a big difference: Jeff Smisek, the CEO of United, says his airline spends $25,000 for every minute on jet fuel.)

And what does this mean for markets? On a broader level, it is really a mixed bag.

For the positive side: If the price of gasoline stays low, that relief should really slowly make its way into consumer's wallets (via lower prices in the pump). Corporate profit margins would also catch a break, as transport costs are a meaningful expense for so a lot of companies.

Within the negative side: For some time now, crude oil and the stock market have walked hand in hand. Equity prices and crude oil prices are actually correlated with the upside, with higher oil indicating a "risk on" willingness to speculate.

Furthermore, the energy and commodities bull market has been a staple for several money managers, including pension funds. A even more retreat there could lead to pain, and possible blow-ups.

In an even darker assessment, various Center East oil producers have leveraged themselves to higher-priced crude.

Saudi Arabia, to cite the most significant example, has dug deep into its pockets in a hope to quell unrest. The Saudis have pledged countless billions to keep the population calm, and those promises are stretching budgets. It is estimated that the Saudis can need an average oil price of $100 per barrel just to keep from running to the red.

Rex Tillerson, the CEO of Exxon, thinks that's much too excessive. Said Tillerson to the Senate Finance Committee this week:

When we look at it, it is actually likely to be somewhere in the $60 to $70 range if you said: "If I had access towards next marketable barrel, what would it cost?"

Exxon, of course, has political motivation of its own to talk down the oil price. With consumers and politicians blaming the oil majors for price gouging, it is in Tillerson's interest to shift the blame to speculative interests (while continuing to rake in huge profits).

Still, we have reached a funny area when it comes to crude oil and other commodities. Additionally price declines threaten the financial health of several market players, and potentially even huge producers like Saudi Arabia. Yet additional hikes in price put us near a "tipping point," where the cost of raw materials slows down the global economy.

With the U.S. dollar in a surprise uptrend, this leaves commodity speculators -- quite a few of them leveraged long -- caught in the middle. It is no longer safe to assume that commodity prices can only go in one particular direction, up, or that buyers will always overwhelm sellers. For that reason we can probably expect much more commodity-related "flash crash" instances in future.

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Intercontinental Airways Plying Their Providers to the Amazing City!9036639