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== Introduction == | == Introduction == | ||
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We can trace the origins of the Prediction Markets concept to the works of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek Friedrich Hayek], the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, and a social and political philosopher. Hayek claimed that the price mechanism serves to share and synchronize local and personal knowledge, allowing society's members to achieve diverse, complicated ends through a principle of spontaneous self-organization. | We can trace the origins of the Prediction Markets concept to the works of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek Friedrich Hayek], the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, and a social and political philosopher. Hayek claimed that the price mechanism serves to share and synchronize local and personal knowledge, allowing society's members to achieve diverse, complicated ends through a principle of spontaneous self-organization. | ||
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* '''[[:Category:Off-platform interaction|Off-platform]]''' – traders may exchange views outside the market about the events being traded. | * '''[[:Category:Off-platform interaction|Off-platform]]''' – traders may exchange views outside the market about the events being traded. | ||
| - | == Is | + | == Who are the traders? == |
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| + | == Why do they trade? == | ||
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| + | == Is the market outcome accurate? == | ||
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| + | == Do traders affect market accuracy? == | ||
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| + | === Manipulation === | ||
| + | === Judgment biases === | ||
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== Corporate Prediction Markets == | == Corporate Prediction Markets == | ||
We are now starting to witness the proliferation of Information Markets into the corporate decision-making environment. One of the pioneering organizations to use Prediction Market as an internal decision-support tool is Hewlett Packard, which is using it as a sales forecasting tool. Intel too is using Information Markets for managing products forecast and production plans. There is evidence that many other organizations like Google, Eli Lilly and Microsoft are jumping into the water, but most of this activity is still in an experimental stage. Organizations are still trying to figure out the kind of incentives to be used, how to make sure that established hierarchies are not threatened and how to maintain a cost effective process etc. | We are now starting to witness the proliferation of Information Markets into the corporate decision-making environment. One of the pioneering organizations to use Prediction Market as an internal decision-support tool is Hewlett Packard, which is using it as a sales forecasting tool. Intel too is using Information Markets for managing products forecast and production plans. There is evidence that many other organizations like Google, Eli Lilly and Microsoft are jumping into the water, but most of this activity is still in an experimental stage. Organizations are still trying to figure out the kind of incentives to be used, how to make sure that established hierarchies are not threatened and how to maintain a cost effective process etc. | ||
